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Especially when you factor in Alex Palou, a driver who has become a master of consistency. When Josef Newgarden beat him in Detroit last month, Palou ended a 24-race streak of eighth-place finishes or better. He’s not even our favorite right now.

We’ve sifted through the data to pick the trio of contenders most likely to win the title. We’ll highlight their strengths and weaknesses in the remaining tracks and ask them what could help them clinch the title – or what could take it away from them.

Who are the favorites + who is missing?

The top three candidates in the standings currently – Alex Palou, Will Power and Scott Dixon – are the favourites.

There is a 36-point gap between Dixon and his pursuers, which is significant but not impossible to overcome.

But the Andretti duo in fourth and fifth, Colton Herta and Kyle Kirkwood, have opposite problems that mean they are some way off the level of the elite trio at the top.

Hertha has been at the peak of his form but has made too many mistakes, while Kirkwood has been very consistent but has yet to score a podium – with the championship’s top three already having at least three top-three finishes.

The three drivers behind the Andretti duo made a lot of mistakes – Pato O’Ward, Scott McLaughlin and Josef Newgarden.

So just to be clear, we’re not saying that these drivers I cannot Winning, just that it is unlikely at this stage without a serious shift in form. And A serious disaster for those in the forefront.

Favorite: Scott Dixon

Yes, we’re making Dixon the favorite for the top three, despite the fact that he’s third in the championship at the halfway point. The Ganassi driver is chasing his seventh title to tie AJ ​​Foyt’s record, and Foyt’s all-time win record as well.

Why is he the favorite if he is in third place?

Dixon may be behind at the moment, but the stats are in his favor.

For this feature, we’ve analyzed a range of statistics. We’re taking a sample set from 2021 onwards because that’s when Palou was first in a competitive car – he joined Ganassi after his first year at Dale Coyne in 2020 – so we get representative data across all three.

Based on this data, Dixon’s average results in the IndyCar races he has competed in before and will compete this year are better than Ballou and Power. That’s at Mid-Ohio, Iowa, Toronto, Gateway and Portland.

For the order below, we calculated: Average final position For each driver on these tracks for each season (2021-23, we’ve also put that ranking below), we then calculated the average from the three seasons.

Best driver on the remaining racetracks in 2024 each season

2021
Palo – 8
Dixon – 8.67
Power – 13.67

2022
Dixon – 4.33
Energy – 5.17
Palo – 8

2023
Dixon – 3.67
Palo – 3.67
Power – 9.67

From that, we take the average of each driver’s achievements, add them together and divide by three to get the average for those three years on those tracks:

Dixon 5.56
Palo 6.56
Power 9.5

But the news is better for Dixon. There are two tracks we haven’t visited in the three-year period we’re analyzing: Milwaukee (last time was in 2015) and Nashville Speedway, which hasn’t been used by IndyCar since 2008.

In Milwaukee, Dixon averaged 6.17 points over 12 races, while Power made seven starts and averaged 9.57 points. There are two races at the Milwaukee Mile this year, and while his 2015 experience may not be the deciding factor, Dixon’s experience can count on it.

The same can be said about the final in Nashville. His record looks better there.

Power only competed once there, finishing 11th, but Dixon won the last three races there and averaged 3.17 points from six starts.

In Toronto and Portland, Dixon has the best average finish among the leading trio since 2021 as well.

He has the most experience and a very large set of stats to back him up.

Toronto’s average final ranking 2021-23
dixon 3
Palo 4
Power 14.5

Portland average final position 2021-23
dixon 3
Palo 4.67
Power 13.33

What could stop Dixon?

Ganassi’s teammate Palou is the main issue for Dixon, being a very strong competitor who has won two of the last three titles and a dominant figure in his consistency.

He also drives a sister car, which works both ways for the duo, but it still makes it harder to climb to the top. Power sees a different team in Penske and a different power in Chevrolet compared to Honda and Ganassi.

Dixon’s qualifying has not been his strength either and as it stands, he is unlikely to emerge victorious in the tournament unless he improves it.

Average initial position 2024
Power 5.62
Palo 6.75
Dixon 10.5

He starts the race five places behind Power on average every race. There’s not much strategy can do when you’re at a disadvantage all the time.

He also finished outside the top 10 twice this year, at the tough Barber race where he used two strategies, and at Road America where his tires mysteriously disappeared. That’s why he came in third.

Of course, the introduction of the new hybrid unit at Mid-Ohio, combined with a host of engine issues earlier in the season, could lead to penalties later in the year. But that could also hurt other contenders.

Contender #2: Willpower

It seems silly to put current points leader Palou third on this list, but with six of the last nine races being held on oval tracks, it opens up an element of opportunity for his rivals to beat Power.

Power had a tough title defence in 2023 and spent much of the time thinking – rightly – about the health of his wife Liz after serious concerns. This year, Liz is recovering and back in racing, and Power has been very strong with his mind focused on track matters.

He has the best qualifying average of the three front-runners, the best at Iowa and Gateway since 2021 in the statistical range we’re using, and generally looks to be in similar form to 2022, when he ran really strong races in a very quiet manner en route to his second IndyCar title.

Unlike Palou, he has races under his belt at Milwaukee (pictured below) and one race at Nashville as well. So while his record isn’t quite on Dixon’s level there, Team Penske is generally dynamite on ovals and Power could benefit from both the team and manufacturer side of things compared to his competitors, even if he’s not as good overall as Dixon on ovals historically.

Iowa State Average Final Placement 2021-23
Power 3
Dixon 5.25
Palo 7.5

Average Final Position in Gateway 2021-23
Power 6
Dixon 9.33
Palo 12

There are also a fair number of incidents in this set of races that have hurt Power specifically in the past.

In 2023 he ran out of fuel in Toronto, finishing 14th, and finished 25th after sliding at Gateway. In 2021 at Mid-Ohio he was hit by Dixon and then Ed Jones which put him out of contention completely in 25th. So there is an anomaly in his data.

What could stop him?

Power took the 2022 title with just one win, but he will undoubtedly need more this year. He has been very consistent but has not looked like he will win many races so he will have to correct that.

Despite his impressive record at Iowa, the track has been partially resurfaced and he crashed there in testing last week. Some have suggested that Penske’s setup advantage at the venue since 2022 will be at least slightly reduced heading into this year’s race.

So far, he has finished in the top seven in every race except one. The one race he hasn’t been in was the Indianapolis 500, won by his teammate, and that could come back to haunt him.

Don’t rule out Palo

Palo won five races last year, so if he does it again, he’ll win the championship.

Of course, this may not be a realistic proposition – so let’s move on to some more realistic data.

He’s the best of the trio since 2021 at Mid-Ohio, has the best average finish this year, and has the second-best average starting position, more than one place behind Power. This year, he’s been in the top five in every race except Detroit, where, as mentioned, he was eliminated.

Mid-Ohio 2021-23 Average Final Place
Palo 2
Dixon 3.67
Power 10.33

If he wants to win, he will have to hope that Dixon and Power’s experience on new ovals and their results on existing ovals are completely out of his reach.

While some may question his averages on current ovals, it doesn’t really matter much. He lacks a win, but he has improved over and over in his oval racing aspects year after year and continues to learn. The Indy 500 has come naturally to him, but the short, technical ovals have their drawbacks.

He’s proven he can master some of these races – like Iowa, where he earned a podium finish last year.

Average end date in 2024
Palo 4.88
Power 6.25
Dixon 7.25

What could stop him?

Although Palou has performed well on ovals and has improved, he simply cannot afford to be so far behind in six of the last nine races. It will be necessary to continue his improvement, as well as take advantage of road and street tracks, to complete his points total.

The stats don’t tell the whole story, as at Gateway his average finish was six places lower than Power’s, but a lot of that is down to a 20th-place finish in 2021 when he was cut short by Rinus Vichai – an incident that has collected Dixon and hurt his average there too.

Avoiding any off-track controversy – McLaren’s lawsuit is unlikely to go to trial until next year, so a repeat of the legal issues that have hampered title races may not be on the cards – and avoiding the usual engine penalties and any reliability lapses will be the main things to watch.

It seems like only a matter of time before he can figure out the shorter ovals, so Dixon and Power better take advantage while they still have new ovals on the calendar.