Blog

The most successful manufacturer in the MotoGP World Championship over the past few years will welcome six-time champion Marc Marquez to its factory team, creating a delicious and volatile combination with the franchise’s well-known rider, Pico Bagnaia.

Things have remained largely cordial between Marquez and Bagnaia, but the latter’s status as Marquez’s most successful Valentino Rossi rival is an inescapable context.

However, even without that context, the simple fact is that these two riders will head into 2025 with the title their only goal – but neither can win it.

KTM

Pedro Acosta (Spain, 2004)
Brad Binder (South Africa, 1995)

Pedro Acosta’s performance as a MotoGP rookie has already confirmed his status as a super-talent and game-changer, with a new multi-year contract and promotion to the factory team for 2025 from the Tech3 satellite group the easiest decision KTM has ever made. .

The emergence of Acosta has taken the shine off former KTM standard-bearer Brad Binder – who has earned a contract extension back in 2023 – so much so that KTM has left the door slightly open for Binder to be switched to Tech3.

With the likes of Marquez and Jorge Martin now off the market, it’s clear that won’t happen, but it is Acosta who KTM will now consider the most likely ticket for the title – perhaps as early as 2025.

Aprilia

Jorge Martin (Spain, 1998)
TBD

Faced with much disapproval from the Ducati factory team, Martin immediately jumped into the arms of Aprilia, becoming the biggest free agent signing in history – and with the potential to bring the No. 1 champion plate with him.

Martin has been appointed as a direct replacement for his great friend Aleix Espargaro, who will step down from full-time competition at the end of the year.

On the other side of the garage, Aprilia has made it clear that it intends to continue with current Maverick Viñales and has even indicated that it is waiting for him to sign a new deal. But, of course, we don’t know the terms of that proposed deal – and Viñales himself has stressed his desire to fully evaluate his options.

Yamaha

Fabio Quartararo (France 1999)
TBD

While things are not rosy on track, Yamaha has completed its big mission for the 2024 silly season by holding on to its star player Fabio Quartararo – who ended the factory’s five-year drought in 2021.

Paddock’s chatter suggests she was doing some form of due diligence on who would partner Quartararo moving forward, but incumbent Alex Rins doesn’t appear to be considering an extension – either as a Grand Prix winner with a track record of developmental acumen, or also a rider already challenging Quartararo In one lap (even if there is a gap in the race pace).

Honda

Luca Marini (Italy, 1997)
TBD

Luca Marini was overall fourth quickest of Honda’s four regular riders – across the works team and the LCR satellite team – in 2024, but an early termination of the initial deal the two parties signed to cover both 24 and 2024 seems out of the question.

Marini, brought in from the Ducati camp, appears to be valued as a development asset and a reassuring practical presence – but Honda is also likely to be the manufacturer least likely to try to force a mid-decade split.

There’s also the fact that the RC213V is unlikely to attract all that many suitors, as evidenced by Marini’s team-mate Joan Mir increasingly eyeing a future outside of the Honda project.

Satellite teams

Pramac/VR46/Gresini

Fermin Aldeguerre (Spain, 2005)
All other riders TBC
The team structure will be determined later

New Ducati team player Fermin Aldeguer – the 19-year-old who came on the strength of a stunning finish to last year’s Moto2 campaign – has joined one of its satellite teams.

Normally this would be Pramac, but Ducati’s long-term number two is understood to have been strongly wooed by Yamaha – and Ducati faces an impossible task to offer it a rider who would be a suitable replacement for Aprilia-bound Martin.

Valentino Rossi’s VR46, like Pramac, has its Ducati deal expiring at the end of the year, but it looks like a great chance to survive, and could be in line for a windfall from the factory-spec machines that typically belong to Pramac.

Fabio Di Giannantonio was the first recruit from outside the VR46 academy this year, but it is also known that he has been courting Aldeguer, so it could be a logical landing spot for him.

Finally, Gresini already has a Ducati deal covering 2025, but its riders’ plans appear to be completely up in the air following Marquez’s departure – and as with the VR46, plans will presumably depend heavily on what happens with Pramac.

Technology3

Enea Bastianini (Italy, 1997) – TBC deal
TBD

A radio appearance by manager Carlo Bernat in his native Italy and Enea Bastianini revealed the current works Ducati rider will head to Tech3 under a factory contract with KTM’s parent company Pierer Mobility Group.

This appears to have been confirmed by Ducati itself, which actually bid an official farewell to Bastianini when it announced the Marquez.

It creates a real free-for-all opportunity for a second ride on the team. Jack Miller, who will be phased out of the KTM works team upon Acosta’s arrival, has expressed interest, and Acosta’s current Tech3 teammate Augusto Fernandez would presumably like to stay on – but both have been disappointing this year, and parent company Pierer Mobility will have options Others to fill the seat, whether currently in MotoGP or Moto2 (or even Moto3?).

There are also rumors that the team may not continue as Tech3 Gas Gas but instead take on a different brand identity from within Pierer Mobility Group.

Track

TBD
TBD

MotoGP’s newest team, although now led by one of its most respected team bosses in Davide Brivio, has yet to make a concrete move into the motorcycle market – but admitted it expects to have a great deal of options.

Those options should include current riders Miguel Oliveira and Raul Fernandez, who have been relatively even in 2024 – albeit with Fernandez on an older-spec bike compared to Oliveira’s modern machine.

Of the two, it is Fernandes who has more clearly expressed his desire to stay and his optimism that it will happen.

American Joe Roberts, the Moto2 championship front-runner, has been flagged as a no-brainer candidate, but Aprilia Racing CEO Massimo Rivola has indicated he does not believe Trackhouse would choose a rookie rider given the experienced options expected in the market. One such option, the aforementioned Mir, won the MotoGP title under Brivio on a Suzuki in 2020.

LCR Honda

Johann Zarco (France, 1990)
TBD

Johan Zarco could be a logical choice for a promotion to Honda’s factory team, but don’t expect that to happen – as both Zarco and LCR, unsurprisingly, seem to prefer him to remain at the team for the full (extended) term of his contract. 2024-25) and Honda is unlikely to want to rock the boat.

The other side of the LCR garage is backed by Japanese sponsor Idemitsu, so will presumably continue to be in need of a Japanese rider. Takaaki Nakagami has met that requirement since his MotoGP debut and re-signing would not be out of the question – but the time may finally be right for Moto2 player Ai Ogura to take the wheel on his MotoGP debut instead.