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This has so far been a confirmed 2024 World Endurance Championship campaign for the Porsche 963 LMDh SUV. The No. 6 factory Porsche Penske won the opening race of the Qatar season and has finished second in the two races since, while the No. 5 sister car and Jota customer No. 12 (which won at Spa) have claimed four of the other six podium finishes in the Hypercar. available.

No wonder Porsche headed into Le Mans as the favourite.

On the face of it, it may not be surprising that the championship-leading No. 6 car took first place.

But it really took pulling something out of the bag in the Hyperpole session – especially since Porsche’s hopes rested solely on Kevin Estre at that point.

Estre benefited greatly from being drawn from an LMP2 car off the Mulsanne corner (although his overtaking hurt his streak at Indianapolis) and the 35-year-old, part of Porsche’s 2018-19 WEC GTE Pro title-winning lineup, used every experience This GT raced over the barriers at the Ford Chicane at the end of the lap in particular to achieve the fastest speed by a tenth and a half.

With a short period to go, things are looking close too, although Porsche once again looks to be marginal favorite – only this time from the No. 51 and No. 50 Ferraris running third and fourth respectively, rather than the sixth-place Cadillacs. In the qualifiers.

So where does this shift in pace for the 2024 specification come from for a car that managed to take the podium all season long – in a less crowded Hypercar field too – last year?

The roots of this inevitably go back to that season, as Porsche worked hard on the package to ensure it unleashed the pace that had previously proven elusive – a process that was undoubtedly made easier now that Porsche Penske’s upgraded facility in Mannheim became fully operational in the end. For the year 2023.

The fruits of this improved understanding are stronger traction for exiting slower corners and a better ride on pavement, while Porsche has also developed its software and has a better read on how to develop its car’s dynamics as well.

These are all important areas that have unleashed this potential – with its early season and Le Mans performances serving as proof of concept.

Whether Porsche’s win comes on Sunday afternoon, it has already been a big feature of the 2024 24 Hours of Le Mans – so much so that Sebastian Vettel’s disdain for entering third action, after a serious testing program in the 963.

A surprise customer win seems unlikely

The No. 6 Porsche was ultimately the only No. 963 car involved in the fight for pole position. But maybe it shouldn’t be so.

The Jota customer squad headed to Le Mans on the crest of a wave after winning at Spa, and also made the cut for the Hyperpole session.

But then progress was derailed by a severe practice accident for Callum Ilott – an accident that was so significant that the car could not be repaired in time to take part in the shoot-out session.

Ilott was given special dispensation to miss the show and rock the rebuilt car he shares with Will Stevens and Norman Nato at Le Mans Airport on Friday evening, but even an eighth-place start ensured the damage was a major blow to Jota’s hopes of outright victory.

Where does Cadillac’s speed come from?

A quick look at this year’s Hypercar points standings doesn’t paint a pretty picture for Cadillac, as its No. 2 entry for the full season has one point after three races.

But the rankings certainly don’t tell the whole story. The car finished fifth in the Qatar season opener, but was disqualified almost three weeks later, as the automaker’s Cadillac Dallara diffuser was different in specification to that of its validation model, while it was in contention for a podium finish at the latter’s Spa. A month later, it was involved in a huge red-flagged crash – an accident for which driver Earl Bamber was eventually held responsible, as he was handed a five-place penalty at Le Mans in second place.

So there was pace there, even if the points remained below par. Behind the great battle between Ferrari and Toyota for victory at the centenary Le Mans race last year, Cadillac was the most impressive of the other brands.

Again, it’s in the mix. This pole penalty may have pushed the No. 2 car to seventh at the start, but its place on the front row was instead assumed by the No. 3 IMSA SportsCar Championship entry of Sébastien Bourdais, Scott Dixon and Ringer van der Zande.

Le Mans native Bourdais has been the long-time leader in Hyperpole qualifying with a Dallara chassis underneath that is arguably the class of the field in terms of car dynamics. If reliability is there – as it was last year – there is every reason to expect Ganassi’s Cadillacs in particular to be in contention for the podium once again.

Where on earth is Toyota located?

The answer to that is not far off at all.

Granted, none of its cars made a Hyperpole, but that was only on a (very basic) technical basis. But for a session that resulted in a red flag, which also meant his time was removed, Kamui Kobayashi could have comfortably made it into the final session and was certainly a contender.

This only extended what had been a difficult build to Le Mans’ dominant strength in recent years (and its No. 7 crew in particular), as Toyota was also forced to make a late driver swap with José María López – who by all accounts was promptly fired. UP TO SPEED – Steps in for Mike Conway, who broke his ribs and collarbone in a bike accident last week.

But Toyota isn’t really far behind – certainly not as far as the 11th and 23rd places on the grid suggest. The No. 8 sister car showed signs of good pace too, but not when it counted in first qualifying.

Having to go through the field complicates its prospects but over the full race distance, Toyota should at least have the pace necessary to be in the conversation with Porsche, Ferrari’s fellow LMH machine and possibly Cadillac.

What about new arrivals?

Both Alpine and BMW are new WEC Hypercar contenders for 2024 and both have shown flashes of speed so far this season.

They both also backed this up in qualifying for Le Mans, where each took a car in Hyperpole qualifying – with a joint third row in the final result.

The No. 15 BMW then failed to set a time when Dries Vanthoor’s car crashed at the Indianapolis corner, bringing out the red flag. But before that it was the fastest ever in the first qualifying round, and the BMW appears to be the better of the two cars in the race as well.

LMDh entry, it uses the same Dallara chassis as the Cadillac, so it’s a smart thing. But the BMW, while quick on a single lap, feels like it’s on the edge at full tilt, so consistency and/or reliability may be more of a challenge.

Reliability is also a concern for the Alpine, but the car is very quick on the straights – so watch out for the A424 at the start in particular.

The No. 63 Lamborghini driven by Mirko Bortolotti, Daniil Kvyat and Edoardo Mortara finished 13th in first qualifying – almost 1.7 seconds behind the No. 19 sister car – but the race looks more likely to be a data-gathering project than a project as the SC63 is a Ligier-designed and By Lamborghini is one of the factors.

The only private project in this year’s Hypercar rankings, from Isotta Fraschini, was the slowest of all the Hypercars to take a lap in first qualifying, more than two seconds behind the No. 19 Lamborghini.