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Lawson drove the 2024 Red Bull car in a short test at Silverstone last Thursday, between the British and Hungarian Grands Prix.

His first race in the RB20 was facilitated by a filming day – officially known as a ‘promotional event’ – which limits teams to 200km of running distance and uses special Pirelli ‘Academy’ tyres that are not of the same standard as Formula 1 racing tyres.

However, Red Bull got a nod to Verstappen to compare with Lawson, and The Race understands his pace was in the range the team needed.

This is basically within a few tenths of Verstappen, the level Perez was performing in the first quarter of the season when he was regularly scoring podiums.

But Perez’s pace has been less impressive since the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix at Imola, where he was regularly more than half a second behind Verstappen in qualifying.

The difference between the two drivers is that this could be Lawson’s starting point from which Red Bull expects him to improve, while the confident Perez is likely to be – with some exceptions – around three-tenths behind Verstappen.

The aim is for Lawson to score points at a decent rate even if he starts behind or just behind the top eight cars. That’s the best Perez has done in the last six races, three of which he’s failed to score.

Some inside Red Bull suggest that Lawson’s speed and confidence will protect him from suffering the same fate as Perez’s predecessors.

Pierre Gasly and then Alex Albon were quickly replaced at Red Bull after they failed to get close enough to Verstappen and did not convince Red Bull they could turn things around.

Tsunoda’s “strange” rule

Yuki Tsunoda, who has largely outplayed Daniel Ricciardo at right-back this season, has recently been touted as a candidate to take Perez’s seat in 2025.

But some believe Tsunoda is Red Bull’s motorsport advisor Helmut Marko’s preferred choice if a replacement for Perez is needed mid-season, which does not reflect the views of team principal Christian Horner.

This is important because the internal struggle for control at Red Bull over the past year or so has seen power shift towards Horner when it comes to driver selection.

At the very least, there are enough reservations from team management to make Tsunoda’s promotion a sure bet.

Despite this, Tsunoda has been unavoidably candid about his ambitions to drive for Red Bull’s first team if a seat suddenly becomes available.

He admitted that the races leading up to the summer break carry increased importance “if the rumours are true”, but described it as “good pressure, not bad pressure” when compared to times in his career when he was struggling to secure any kind of Formula 1 future.

But when The Race asked him if he would find it strange if he was overlooked in favour of a less experienced driver like Lawson if there was a vacancy in the first team, given his performances this season, he gave a blunt answer: “If they go for Liam, it would be strange.

“Liam certainly did a really good job when he drove with the team, but… I think I did more than that. We’ll see how it goes. In the end, they know how to deal with the drivers.”

Even Perez

Speaking at his own media briefing, Perez said it was “natural” that Tsunoda and others wanted his seat because “this is part of the nature of the sport”.

He also sought to show his complete confidence in staying in the car for the rest of the season and beyond.

“I have been in this business for a very long time and I know that the only thing that will matter to me is where I end my career in Abu Dhabi,” said Perez, echoing the same sentiment in other answers as well, thus indicating that there is no doubt in his mind that he will still have the RB20 at his disposal at the end of the season.

He has also repeatedly dismissed suggestions that his position at Red Bull is on shaky ground as “external noise” and said the next two races before the summer break are no more or less important than any other races on the calendar.

Asked directly about reports that Verstappen has a clause in his contract that could allow Red Bull to replace him during the summer break, Perez said: “There’s nothing to do with that. Obviously I can’t talk about my contract, but there’s nothing to do with that.”

“I am fully focused on performing well, and I will be here,” he added. [after the summer break] “I will be here again next year.”

The Reiss team now believe that the talk of a performance clause during the summer break is not about the points margin that Perez must remain within, but there are other contractual mechanisms through which Red Bull can make the switch if they wish.

Essentially, the club would have to buy out Perez’s contract. This could be for a set amount if certain performance targets are not met, or it could simply reflect the value of his salary.

Verstappen’s point of view

For his part, Verstappen, a three-time world champion and Red Bull driver, took a largely defensive tone when describing Perez’s recent struggles.

“We can’t deny that the last few weekends have been a bit tough. [for him] “I would also say that some were a bit unlucky,” said Verstappen, citing Perez’s first race at Silverstone as one such example.

“He wants to do better, but I know he works hard, it’s not that he takes it seriously or anything like that.

“Hopefully here, when the car becomes a bit more suitable for him to drive, everything will feel a bit more connected, and can work a bit better for him.

“We just have to focus on performance – our car was a bit tricky at times on Friday, and we were always looking to balance it out.

“As a driver, it’s very difficult to maintain consistency because you always have to deal with different types of balance issues – so it’s not entirely fair to say that everything is his fault, because even for me the last few weekends have been very difficult to get the best out of the car.”

Verstappen also noted that his collaboration with Perez when it comes to car development “has always been a strength”.

Ricardo out?

One sentiment Marko has expressed recently is that RB’s second Formula 1 team needs to be a small team again.

Turning Red Bull into a place to prove itself is out of the question. One reason is that it would hurt the team’s competitive prospects, while Red Bull has made it clear that this should be a top priority. Another reason is that marketing appeal is important to a team that now has high-value partners like Visa and Cash App.

But the compromise lies in combining youth and experience. This is also directly beneficial for Red Bull, as the company’s young driver programme has suffered from a lack of strategy in recent years.

With Lawson as an option and Red Bull’s Isaac Hagar at the helm of the Formula 2 championship, it could become confusing if Red Bull can’t find space by dropping older drivers who occupy seats at its teams.

Lawson replacing Perez would solve this problem, if that’s what Red Bull feel the need to do, but making way for Ricciardo is also a possibility.

Ricciardo’s story seems to have him oscillating between “fighting for a seat at Red Bull Racing” and “losing his place on the grid entirely” for what seems like forever.

In fact, he has not done enough to convince Red Bull that he deserves a place at the top again, and it is also understood that he recently received an urgent offer regarding his place at Red Bull.

There are also suggestions that Red Bull have begun exploring the possibility of a soft landing for Ricciardo, so that if he needs to go out he can stay on the grid elsewhere.

Similar to Perez’s situation at Red Bull, nothing is set in stone. But Red Bull is making various contingency plans in an attempt to secure its short-term goals and improve its long-term position as well.